Selling Tomorrows

Behind the Scenes of STS-129

If there's one lesson I've learned with covering events using social media, it's redundancy, redundancy, redundancy.  So here I am, double checking my three layers of Twitter/Blogging tools -- Blackberry, Laptop with wifi and backup cell modem, and iPod Touch -- and I find this "behind the scenes" video of the STS-129 crew getting ready for launch.  Frankly, given the complexity of what these guys are doing, and the bravery with which they'll do it, it makes any of my concerns about technical failure seem pretty dumb.  Enjoy the video...(check out the footage at the 14-minute mark.  Pretty funny going over the wardrobe). 

Can't wait for...

On the Anniversary of Berlin Wall Fall, Why we Miss Existential Threats

The 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall has a lot of people thinking existentially, and their insights illuminate some interesting aspects of how we think about the past and future.

First, check out this fascinating op-ed in today's NY Times by Ross Douthat.  He asks why aren't we celebrating our victory more, and then points to a deep seated need for people to feel under threat in order to spur moral behavior.

"Twenty years later, we still haven't come to terms with the scope of our deliverance...we keep returning to the idea that liberal society is just as vulnerable as it was before the Berlin Wall came down...These paranoias suggest a civilization that's afraid to reckon with its own apparent permanence. The end of history has its share of discontents - anomie, corruption, "The Real Housewives of New Jersey." And it may be that the only thing more frightening than the possibility of annihilation is the possibility that our society could coast on forever as it is - like a Rome without an Attila to sack its palaces, or a Nineveh without Yahweh to pass judgment on its crimes.

Humankind fears judgment, of course. But we depend on it as well. The possibility of dissolution lends a moral shape to history: we want our empires to fall as well as rise, and we expect decadence to be rewarded with destruction. Not that we want to experience this destruction ourselves. But we want it to be at least a possibility - as a spur to virtue, and as a punishment for sin."

In another NYT op-ed, Slavoj Zizeklooks at the desire -- not all brought on by nostalgia -- for people in former Eastern Block countries to revive communism.  The reason?  'It's a dream world, Neo.'

"Why were the old ghosts resuscitated in nations where many young people don't even remember the Communist times?...It is because, many believe, we are not really in capitalism: we do not yet have true democracy but only its deceiving mask, the same dark forces still pull the threads of power, a narrow sect of former Communists disguised as new owners and managers - nothing's really changed, so we need another purge, the revolution has to be repeated...On the search for justice, they will have to start from scratch. They will have to invent their own ideologies. They will be denounced as dangerous utopians, but they alone will have awakened from the utopian dream that holds the rest of us under its sway."

How do you Assure People about the Future? Tell them We're Going Back to the Past

Disney is looking to modernize its Mickey Mouse brand, and I detect a sophisticated framing technique at use that's designed to allay people's fears about it.  According to this New York Times piece:

"But Mickey won't be bland anymore, either. "I wanted him to be able to be naughty - when you're playing as Mickey you can misbehave and even be a little selfish," Mr. Spector said.

In many ways, it is a return to Mickey at his creation. When the character made its debut in "Steamboat Willie" in 1928, he was the Bart Simpson of his time: an uninhibited rabble-rouser who got into fistfights, played tricks on his friends (pity Clarabelle Cow) and, later, was amorously aggressive with Minnie."

Whether this is a message Disney is originating, or one that people are clinging to instinctively, a "return to the past" approach can do wonders for allying people's fears about a future that represents a change from the present.  See?  It's not really change at all if we're just going back to our roots, right?

Another great example of this was GM's Futurama exhibit at the 1939 World's Fair.  As discussed in the book, Yesterday's Tomorrows, GM helped sell the idea of a national highway system by telling people it would help America return to its agrarian roots. There was a great migration at the time from farms to cities, and many felt America was losing touch with its farm values.  But by commuting from the farm to the city, Futurama promised, we could have both.  See?  It's not really change at all if we're just going back to our roots, right?

A Piece of Under the Dome, A Piece of a Brilliant Social Media Strategy

There's a brilliant social media strategy in motion right now for Stephen King's new book, Under the Dome.  The book's website is giving out the text snippet by snippet (5,196 pieces in all), encouraging people to distribute them through their social networks or in the physical world so that others can assemble them into a free online version.  It's hide-and-seek meets a wiki meets social media.  It's the coolest marketing idea I've seen since Sony's holographic dragon popped out of Toyko Bay (what? you haven't seen the video?  Well here it is.)

So for all those treasure hunters out there, here's the piece of Under the Dome I received today:

____________________

believe he's dirty?'
    She did not hesitate. 'With all my heart.' Because Howie believed it - that's good enough for me.
    'And you remember what's in the file?'
    'Not the exact figures and the names of all the banks they used, but enough.'
    'Then he'll believe you,' Barbie said. 'With or without a second copy of the paperwork, 

______________________

And here's a challenge I'd like to propose...let's find the brilliant person who came up with this idea.  I'm sure this is a well-guarded secret since the marketing effort is supposed to promote the book, not the marketer, but genius like this can't be left stuck under a...a...dome. 

Watch this Space for Live-Blogging & Tweeting of Atlantis Shuttle Launch

NASA is holding a Tweetup for 100 of their followers on Twitter for the mid-November launch of the shuttle Atlantis, and by luck of the draw, I made the cut!  I'll be covering the launch, complete with pre-flight briefing and lots of background on the history of the media and public perception issues related to space in the run-up.  As usual with events, the long-form reporting can be found here, with moment-by-moment action (when the action gets waaaay to fast to cover on the blog) found over on twitter at @davidhrosen.

Have questions you want me to ask NASA PR?  Send 'em my way.

Why are People Attracted to Dystopias? Ask an Author who Writes Them

io9 has a great guest post by Jeff Carlson, the best selling author of the Plague Year series, on why people like dystopic fiction.  Considering that in the next month we've got 2012 and The Road coming out (not to mention an oversupply of zombie movies), the topic is both timely and timeless. 

But there's also a flip side worth exploring...there's a definite pattern over the past few hundred years (read related dystopia and utopia posts here) where people tend to think either one extreme or other will characterize the future.  Rarely do they think life will pretty much continue on as it always has.  You can see this best in books going back to the 1800s where the Forwards invariably start off saying "in this time of great change..."  and then proceed to list the explosive mix of technology + moral success/failure will result in a new golden or dark age.

Year-Long Look at Behavioral Finance

PBS' Nightly Business Report has just kicked off a 12-month series on behavioral finance.  How do people decide what the future will bring?  How do they mesh global macro trends with what they anticipate their personal future holds?  And how much of this analysis happens unconsciously?  These are some of the most exciting questions psychologists and market analysts are asking today, and this series should be very useful to PR and marketing pros.

Their companion website already has a ton of info up, including why people see patterns where none exist, a Psychology Today piece on 10 ways we calculate the odds wrong, a link to a study on "Prospect Theory" that explores how people make decisions in times of uncertainty.

The video above is an intro on Behavioral from NBR's first broadcast in the series.

Consumer's Use of Warranties a Peek into Societal Views on Risk Management

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting piece on the value of extended warranties.  Neal Templin writes, "If the retailer makes a lot of money selling them, then it stands to reason the consumer buying the warranty isn't getting a great price."  But value is never more in the eye of the beholder when it comes to people's expectations about what the future will bring.  The ancient greeks, who had all the math they needed to create insurance, didn't. Peter Bernstein speculates it's because they didn't think the future was something that could be controlled; the gods would simply flick you off the face of the Earth if they felt like it, so why try?  Today, the multi-billion insurance industry is a testament to our efforts to manage the future.

All of which leads to a great question this WSJ explores -- how do people hedge risks against an uncertain future in their daily lives?  Believing that if a warranty is available, it must be because a product will break, one woman states, "Every time I've bought a warranty for something, I've needed it," Clarissa told me. "It's like insurance against life. And life bites."

Ouch.

Spoiler Alert - The World Won't End in 2012, Mayans Say

This AP piece is making the rounds online -- and hopefully correcting a lot of dumb conclusions about 2012.  I won't quote it because I'm not sure what their excerpting policies are these days, but -- SPOILERS - looks like the sun will rise on Jan 1, 2013.  

Socrates in Diapers? Insights Into How Babies Start Thinking about the Future

Salon has a good piece on the philosophical capabilities of babies.  This excerpt is particularly interesting in exploring how we start thinking about the future from the earliest stage.  So was Socrates really babbling?  Or was his babbling merely socratic?

"Very young children readily imagine a variety of outcomes to any given situation. For example, 2-year-olds can tell you that if their imaginary teddy bear is drinking imaginary tea and spills it, the imaginary tea will have to be mopped up. Is this ability to imagine the what-ifs of life what most separates human from non-human thought?

I think so, though again animals are smarter than we thought. Still, humans have a special ability to think "counterfactually," to imagine what might have happened rather than remember what did happen, and animals certainly don't do that as much as we do. For better or worse, we live in possible worlds as much as actual ones. We are cursed by that characteristically human guilt and regret about what might have been in the past. But that may be the cost for our ability to hope and plan for what might be in the future."

Recessipedia Launches to Avoid Repeat of Financial Crisis

Proud to report that my company's six-month effort with the Museum of American Finance has come to fruition today.  Recessipedia.org is a wiki designed to tap the wisdom of crowds to figure out what happened to cause the financial crisis. Check out the Wall Street Journal's coverage here and our press release here. Snip:

"Modeled on Wikipedia, Recessipedia's articles can be created, written and edited by anyone. But unlike Wikipedia, the Museum's wiki has a distinct goal of investigating past events.  The wiki also collects first-person accounts and welcomes people and organizations to contribute their own points of view about what happened leading up to and during the crisis. "
 

EPA Researching Nanotech Health Risks

Snip from today's NYTimes: "Research will also center on how they move in the environment, the problems they might cause for people, animals and plants, and how these problems could be avoided or mitigated...Little is known about whether substances engineered at the nano scale persist and accumulate in the environment in unusual and potentially harmful ways." Full article here.  A summary of the EPA's research strategy here. 

A Futures Market for Words on Twitter

Got a marketing campaign that's about to get people buzzing?  Put your money where your mouth is with a new futures market that lets you bet on the surge of specific words used on Twitter like they're so much bushels of corn. The bets are virtual, but the bragging rights are real.  Good summary from Mashable here.   

New Air Force Ads: "It's Not Science Fiction. It's What we do Every Day"

The USAF has gotten some criticism for its new ad campaign, but that can't take anything away from the brilliant marketing -- and understanding of their audience -- at work in these spots.