Selling Tomorrows

Flight from the City: "What the #%&@! is Wrong with our Economy?

You have to hand it to Borsodi. He looks at the economic devastation around him in 1933, people walking around shell shocked and penniless, and outright rejects it.  Where everyone sees a savage business cycle, he sees a savage economic model.  Where others queue for breadlines, he buys farmland to grow his own food.  Absolutists are easy to admire, of course, but unlike most of them, Borsodi doesn't substitute ideology for logic.  He embraces the scientific model and applies it over and over until he finds a way out of his mess.

Borsodi makes three arguments in the book. The first is that an economic system that can't eliminate unemployment is immoral and impractical.  Snip:

..."all these victims of unemployment are alike in this respect, that they are periodically unable to support themselves and their families through no fault of their own because of their dependence upon what they earn as a cog in some part of the complex machinery of our factory-dominated civilization."

 

What Would You do if Unemployment Hit 30%? A Three-Part Look at 1932's "Flight from the City"

You know you're living in interesting times when Ron Paul's amendment to audit the Federal Reserve gets passed out of committee 43-26.  But then again, 10% unemployment has prodded a lot of people to start questioning some fundamentals.

When unemployment hit 31.2% in 1932, an economist named Ralph Borsodi wrote one of the most important utopic works of the 20th century, "Flight from the City."  And he didn't just write "Flight" -- he lived it.  Ralph looked at the depression around him and decided to pack up the family, buy a farm, and make his own economic way in the world. And it mostly works.  He's not a socialist, though he finds a lot of flaws with capitalism. And he's not a "return to the earth" kind of person, noting many times he hates backbreaking labor and finds many ways to have machines do the work for him.

Like most utopias, "flight" says more about the times in which it was written than those that came to pass.  And yet it's worth reading because the eerie similarities to today reveal how darned constant and consistent our utopic hopes are. Hopes that go back for thousands of years.  Understanding the intricacies of this dynamic is the key to laying out a CONVINCING vision of tomorrow.

Plus, it's just really fun to read.

This week kicks off a special 3-post look at "Flight." I hope you enjoy.

Book: "Age of Wonder" Calls for More Imaginative View of Science

Kevin Berger at Salon reviews a new book that's been getting a lot of buzz: "Age of Wonder" by Richard Holmes.  It explores scientific advancement in Great Britain in the 18th and 19th centuries, a time when art and science shared common goals and spoke a common language.  I'm adding it to my reading list, but given the quality of Berger's review, I kind of wish he could just walk me through it. Snip:  

"A good history of science unreels like the practice of science itself. It wends through a world of experiments until a new reality arises. But the more layered story of that journey is that science is not just a process but is the men and women performing it. In his radiant new book, "The Age of Wonder," Holmes treats us to the amazing lives of the pioneering sailors and balloonists, astronomers and chemists of the Romantic era. Making good on the book's subtitle, he takes us on a dazzling tour of their chaotic British observatories and fatal explorations in African jungles, showing us "how the Romantic generation discovered the beauty and terror of science.'"

New Book Explores Chemistry's Portrayal in the Movies

Alfred P. Sloan grant in-hand, a scholar and artist have teamed up to explore the role that chemistry plays in the movies.  The pair watched more than 300 movies, most made after 1970 and considered to portray good stories and significant doses of chemicals.  The result is a new book, "ReAction! Chemistry in the Movies."  

Though the goal was, as reported by Omaha.com, to “have a collection of movies that chemistry instructors could refer to, to illuminate some theme in the classroom,” the themes have everything to do with human -- not physical -- nature. 

From Amazon: 

"It is about the dualities of Dr. Jekyll vs. inventor chemists, the invisible man vs. forensic chemists, chemical weapons vs. classroom chemistry, chemical companies that knowingly pollute the environment vs. altruistic research chemists trying to make the world a better place to live, and, finally, about people who choose to experiment with mind-altering drugs vs. the drug discovery process.

A good read for PR professionals in the chemicals sector seeking insight into how the public gets much of its information on the industry. 

Author of "Future: A Recent History" Speaking at NY Public Library Tuesday

From the NYPL's page:

"Author @ the Library presents: "Future: a Recent History"with Lawrence R. Samuel.

The future is not a fixed idea but a highly variable one that reflects the values of those who are imagining it. By studying the ways that visionaries imagined the future--particularly that of America--in the past century, much can be learned about the cultural dynamics of the time. In this social history, the writer examines the future visions of intellectuals, artists, scientists, businesspeople, and others to tell a chronological story about the history of the future in the past century."

The talk starts at 6:30pm at the Mid-Manhattan Library, 455 Fifth Avenue.

Read my review of Future: a Recent History" here.

New Book: "Future: A Recent History" Will Change the Way You Think About Tomorrow Today

I’ve just finished reading Lawrence Samuel’s new book, “Future: A Recent History.” Suffice it to say, I’ve underlined a fifth of its passages, written in the margins of almost every page and scribbled dozens of check marks for the "wow" insights I want to remember later.  It’s that good.

 

The book explores 100 years of history in 200 dense pages, taking readers on a tour of how people's expectations of the future have changed over time.  An ambitious number of topics are covered -- politics, religion, class, gender, pop culture, fashion, the home, business, jobs, travel, architecture, and lots of science and technology.  But the payoff is equally large, as Samuel’s brisk writing style delivers a fascinating look into an aspect of our culture that we are barely conscious exists.

 

Marketers and PR professionals will find Future to be an especially valuable tool for better understanding target audiences.  If you needed proof that your vision of tomorrow needs to adapt to people’s preconceptions of what’s ahead, this work offers plenty.  And while Samuel doesn't take on what people are thinking right now (many others do that) his voyage through history teaches you how to spot the patterns.

 

It’s worth noting that a lot of books make fun of futurists who have gotten things wrong.  Rightly so.  Many of them are hysterical and it's part of what makes this topic fun.  Not Samuel.  He found a chillingly large number of predictions that have come true.  Sure, sometimes the predictor got the technology right and its impact on society wrong, or vice versa.  But there are patterns to the errors, and understanding them will help you be a better marketer, historian or futurist when it comes to dissecting and using predictions.

 

If all that’s not enough, the exhaustive research that went into this work offers a treasure trove of books, articles and pop culture moments to be further explored by anyone interested in futurism. 

 

A worthy successor to I.F. Clarke's "The Pattern of Expectation," "Future: A Recent  History" will change the way you see tomorrow today.

Hugh Ferris' Metropolis of Tomorrow - Building Utopia One Skyscraper at a Time

 

"The Metropolis of Tomorrow by Hugh Ferris a great example of how any field, taking upon it a vision of the future, ultimately tries to create a new system of benign government.  Ferris was an architect who, in 1929, published a series of sketches about what cities could and should look like.  Plainly stating that architecture affects people's actions at the subconcious level, he creates an environment within which people might just act better. 

 

In spirit this is so much like Thomas More's Utopia or Edward Bellamy's Looking backward that it's freaky.

Ferriss's city is enourmous.  The base of its largest buildings take up eight blocks.  They're so big and specially purposed that he says the word "building" no longer fits--they should be called "centers." There's a business, government, art and science center.  Each building is its own city with banks, gyms, shops, restaurants.

In the city of the future, religions act in harmony.  They're housed in a triple building. One is for the executive offices, the next for  "aspirational activities" and the third, and the highest, is for charities.

Book: "Secret Pulse of Time" Explains Biological Underpinnings of Concepts of Past, Present & Future

Who knew biology played such an important role in how people perceive time?  Exploring this aspect of "life's scarcest commodity" is "The Secret Pulse of Time" by Stefan Klein.

As someone who frequently uses "the future" to sell ideas, it's a bit shocking to learn that it's not until we're four years old that we understand what a "day" means, and not 'til we're 13 that we can easily use terms like "earlier" and "later." 

The degree to which our bodies keep time borderlines on freaky.  Whether you're reading this now or not, chances are you were born at 4am.  And that you'll die at 5am. (Hey, file your complaints with Stefan, not me.)  But as in tune with the universe as we are, our minds don't have access to the fine watch-like movements our cells follow. 

Ever notice how a trip to someplace new seems to take longer than the trip back?  Klein says it's because experiences that are dense with novelty and data and require a lot of focus feel like they take longer.  On the return trip you've already taken in much of the new information and your mind doesn't process the experience as lengthy.  "When the brain separates out an experience to store it, it registers places, colors, shapes, feelings, sounds, smells, and taste. But time is not coded," says Klein.   "Beautiful moments are fundamentally too brief, and unpleasant occasions never seem to end.."  Poetic.  Then he says caffeine also makes time feel like it's going by faster.

Other interesting finds in the book:

• Westerners think of the future as what's literally ahead of them, with the past pressing into their back.  But this isn't a hard wired intuition.  The Aymara tribe of the Andes think the future is behind them because it's impossible to see, and the past is in front of them because it has already been viewed.  Klein says that they tend not to speculate about the future because it can't be seen.
• On a moment-by-moment basis, people generally thinking about either the past or the future, not the present. 
• Thinking about the past changes one's memory about the past.  (That's right Heisenberg fans).  Klein says that memories can be reframed, which is why the "good old days" phenomenon exists.

Marketers and anyone curious about what literally makes us tick will find a lot to like in this book.

Seth Godin on Faith, Science and the Future

For a short book, Seth Godin's "TRIBES" covers a lot of territory. But while most of it has to do with leadership and social media, an incredibly insightful passage on faith, science and the future should not be overlooked:

"Faith goes back a long way. Faith leads to hope, and it overcomes fear. Faith gave our ancestors the resilience they needed to deal with the mysteries of the (pre-science) world. Faith is the dividing line between humans and most other species. We have faith that the sun will rise tomorrow, faith that Newton's laws will continue to govern the way a ball travels, and faith that our time in med school will pay off twenty years from now because society is still going to need doctors."

I'm struck by how whether it's a vision of the future, which no one can objectively say is truth, or a scientific principal like the boiling point of water, what enables people to bet their dollars or even their lives is their faith that something will happen.  

If anyone knows of any psychological books/papers on this topic, drop me a line.

The Bill Bradley Formula for Building Movements Using Visions of the Future

Seth Godin's book, "TRIBES" has lots of good info on how to build and lead groups.  One of the gems is former Senator Bill Bradley's formula for creating movements.  The three ingredients are:

1. A narrative that tells a story about who we are and the future we're trying to build.

2. A connection between and among the leader and the tribe.

3. Something to do--the fewer limits, the better.

As I often tell clients, for all the wonders of social media, if the group you're forming doesn't have a vision that goes beyond the profit-seeking goal, don't even try.  At best you'll be ignored, and at worst alienate customers and end up in a Godin book as an example of what not to do.

But--if your vision for the future is authentic, compelling, specific, benefits the group and has a dollop of nobility, then watch out--both the tribe and your CFO will be lining up to thank you.