Forget communicating complex predictions on technology and society -- turns out half of us don't even understand weather forecasts. A cognitive psychologist at the University of Washington just put out a study that says a forecast calling for a 20% chance of rain is often interpreted by people as 'water will fall on 20% of the geographic area' or 'it will rain for 20% of the day.'
Quite a lesson on the virtues of keeping messages simple and not being shy about offering definitions.
From the article on LiveScience:
"Joslyn said that the research, funded by the National Science Foundation and detailed in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, shows the difficulty of making decisions where uncertainty is involved. People find it easier, she said, to simplify the situation to a single outcome: that it will definitely rain, but not for the whole day or the whole area.
And understanding of how forecasts are interpreted could be useful to government officials who have to decide on school closings, road closures and other potentially expensive measures."
